Tennis Scoreline Probabilities

The following table is data output from the RoBOPPic's Point Value Model as discussed in the blog post "Playing Tennis like Deep Blue Part 2: Computation and Tennis Tactics."

This table has over 1500 rows, and each row quantifies the strategic importance of that particular score in a tennis set.

You can use the Find function to scroll to the scoreline that you are interested in. You can then walk through a set by using the Win, Ran and Lose buttons (which will show up at the bottom of the page) to indicate winning, random, or losing each point until the set is won or lost.

Random is similar to flipping a coin to determine whether you win or lose each point although you win 65% of the points when serving and 35% when returning.

The Top button will take you back to the top of the page, and it also clears the chart to start over.

The Your Win Probability column is the probability of winning the set given the current score. Your Opponent (Opp) is assumed to be your equal in skill and therefore the Your Win Probability will be 50% whenever you are tied.

The Point Value column reflects how much winning that point shifts your chances of winning the set. It is the change in your probability of winning the set if you win the current point versus if you lose the current point.

Very high Point Values, which show up as peaks in the graph, indicate Big Points that can swing a set.

Understanding the Point Values at different scorelines can give tennis players an understanding of which points are more important and thereby help them to make smarter tactical decisions.